Bush Sr. negotiates contracts for oil imports, Bush Jr. is President, gas is $4. Are these thing related?

June 14, 2009 · Filed Under Economics · 5 Comments 
justaguy23456 asked:


1. Since finishing his term as U.S. President, George Bush Senior has worked as an independent consultant for the American Petroleum Institute (API) the trade association representing the U.S. petroleum industry including exploration and production, transportation, refining, and marketing. He negotiates contracts for oil imports into the U.S. and is paid a commission based on profit margin.
2. George Bush Junior is U.S. President.
3. Gas is over $4 and quickly heading to $5 a gallon.
Are these three things related or is it all just an amazing coincidence.

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Over the long term, how does speculation affect the price of oil?

February 26, 2009 · Filed Under Investing · 3 Comments 
BizAnswers asked:


In the short term, I think it is clear that speculation affects oil prices, but over the long term, I am less than convinced. Specifically, with all derivatives, there is someone on the other side of the deal; it is a zero-sum game unless someone takes delivery. If speculation drove the long-term price of oil, it seems to me that the speculators would be required to take delivery of the oil at some point in hopes of selling it at a higher price. If the speculators are not taking delivery, supply and demand must dictate the price of oil as the long-derivative speculator simply offsets the position of the short-derivative speculator until the contracts settle or expire. Since speculators who do not take delivery are not affecting supply and demand, how could speculation cause a long term increase in the price? News commentators continue to bang the drum of speculation causing the price rises, but I remain unconvinced. Now is your chance to convince me where my analysis falls short.

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