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1. Since finishing his term as U.S. President, George Bush Senior has worked as an independent consultant for the American Petroleum Institute (API) the trade association representing the U.S. petroleum industry including exploration and production, transportation, refining, and marketing. He negotiates contracts for oil imports into the U.S. and is paid a commission based on profit margin.
2. George Bush Junior is U.S. President.
3. Gas is over $4 and quickly heading to $5 a gallon.
Are these three things related or is it all just an amazing coincidence.
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Oil is increasing because as you get closer to supply overload, perhaps the oil price starts becoming asymptotic.
The economist said speculators couldn’t drive up the price of oil because they are simply trading ‘paper barrels’. However, all this demand for contracts has to increase demand somewhere; They buy oil, then they sell it before ‘delivery,’ but in the process they are increasing demand.
It would seem that oil price could come down fairly easily. There is 1 million barrel discrepancy between supply and demand. With people’s lifestyle changing a little bit, you could easily take out 4 million barrels of demand and then the price could really plummet to 30’s or 20’s.
Nevertheless, this would mean a constant constraint on world growth, as every time the global belly would swell a price shock would ensue; demand growth is faster than supply growth.
It will be interesting to see where it goes. Please leave your insightful comments below.
Eventually high prices make alternatives attractive.
Did you know that hydrogen is cost efficient at 150 a barrel? you can use coal or nuclear to turn water into hydrogen, at an energy loss, but cost is what matters in the end.
Oil will not stay at thsi price but the constraints on growth will… This will mean people will notice another oil shock after it goes down again fairly quickly. This is why alternatives become viable.
The best outcome will be a combination of all the alternatives. And….nuclear power.
Mrs. bugsme…
I think your right about that…it will take a few years before this starts happening though, perhaps two decades…In the transition period, oil nations will have a ball.
in other words..its going to crash and oil nations will not like the outcome (its not their fault or anything that oil has gone up though)…but then perhaps it will go up again a year later, so, its up for grabs.
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and my bearings have gone bad (they told me I waited to long in between oil changes) For a new Jasper Engine w/labor it’s $4400 I know that I am going to have negative equity but if I do trade it what’s the lowest amount I should accept.
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Do people understand that oil wells have a 15-20 year life cycle, that most of the wells producing now were drilled 7-10 years ago? You make an investment decision based on the budgeted return and nobody 10 years ago anticipated that oil prices would be this high now. As a result fewer oil wells were drilled. And now the cost of drilling for oil and for gas has grown exponentially (which is why I told you people to buy BRNC two months ago - I did, and I’m up $2.75/share) - a cost that typically is shown on the cash flow statement - and if it isn’t that means that if you read the rest of the 10-K you’ll see that the E+P firm’s reserves are down, which is why E+P companies trade at such low P/Es).
If you think “big oil is raping us” then go buy some stock in an E+P company - you might wonder why Wall Street isn’t following your lead though.
BS the point is that to stay in business they have to maintain their reserves - profits are way up but so is the cost to drill, thus what goes in goes back out - the main reason big oil stocks have come up is that they HAVEN’T reinvested all the profits in new exploration, they’ve furthered their forward integration (Mobil does more marketing) and they’ve bought back stock (again XOM) - XOM’s performance adjusted for the stock buyback isn’t any better than the broader market.
Seriously - read a CASH FLOW statement.
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I recently read an article that quoted independent gas station owners who were complaining that the major oil companies are charging them much more for their gas supplies than they charge the company owned gas stations, thus forcing independents to charge more at the pump accordingly.
First, is it true and second, doesn’t that bring up monopoly or restraint-of-trade legal issues?
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Shows where galleries or hotel interior designers seek inexpensive oil paintings?
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It is cause especulation? demand/supply conditions were the same last year and it didn´t rise so much? Is someone becoming filthy rich due to future values trading? Will it go down after next elections? The Bush admin “Commodity Futures Modernization Act of 2000″ and the 2006 ICE allowence to trade through local terminals with EEUU future oil at London exchange stocks; favoring the especulation furthermore might be a move to further enrich its buddies, the oil companies, while himself, and also causing people all over the world and the country to further fall into debt with banks, who are making billions charging us taxes on money lend at private and government levels!!! Also, might this be a move to settle a oil price control tool based on especulation (a especulation that very few people currently know how exactly it affect oil price and in whcih degree!!), in order to neutralize the impact of the middle east oil price rising capacity it attacked! Is this a preface to more war(Iran)?
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Can major investors circumvent US antitrust laws by trading outside US exchanges and bid oil out of sight? Or does every place in the world have rules against that?
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